VT - Back Testing Results (Ver. 03/2015)

Below are given back testing results of VT, generated by the back testing software. These results should be considered as extrapolation into the past of the currently used VT, which started live trading on April 1, 2015. Performance fees (20% of new net profit above high water mark) are not deducted from back testing results. To see actual trading results, please go to the Performance page.

Results do not take into account bid/ask spreads and interest. Actual annualized rates of return (after bid/ask spreads, commisions and interest, before performance fees) should be around than 95% of theoretical returns.

VT Features:

- Based on the 74 months long back testing history, this strategy looks very promising. The variability of returns is low and the Sharpe Ratio is excellent. The strategy is quite robust i.e. relatively insensitive to parameter changes (it is not a curve fitted, or over optimized system), which usually anticipates excellent performance in forward trading, following the back testing period.

- Transaction costs are very low (only 1% of net asset value per annum), relative to average annualized rate of return (around 20% per annum). Since bid/ask spread costs are around 5% of the theoretical return, actual rates of return should be around 95% of theoretical returns.

- The strategy trades liquid instruments (the VXX ETNs) and has large capacity. Alternately, VIX futures could be traded, but at the cost of increased bid/ask spreads and commission costs.

- V1 has relatively low drawdowns and, due to the excellent profitability, the strategy recovers relatively quickly.

 

VT - HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE REPORT FROM STRATEGY BACK TESTING

1. Monthly Rates of Return (ROR), Before Performance Fees

    

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

VAMI

2009

- (0.69%) 0.17% 1.44% 1.06% (2.37%) 4.89% 0.23% 2.95% 2.35% 1.02% 3.09% 4.67% 1,148.6

2010

(1.42%) 0.90% 4.71% (2.27%) (1.09%) 2.84% 4.50% 0.60% 4.43% 3.14% 1.62% 3.41% 23.19% 1,415.0

2011

4.64% (0.10%) (0.81%) 3.03% (1.37%) (0.06%) (0.90%) 1.84% (0.60%) 2.10% (1.99%) 2.89% 8.74% 1,538.6

2012

4.41% 4.48% 2.58% (3.30%) (2.75%) 5.49% 2.77% 2.81% 6.45% 0.67% 1.73% 1.43% 29.69% 1,995.4

2013

8.04% (0.72%) 1.41% 1.44% 0.28% (1.15%) 4.00% 2.09% 2.57% 3.25% 2.20% 4.57% 31.42% 2,622.4

2014

(2.73%) 4.53% 1.51% 1.17% 2.62% 4.56% 1.17% 1.40% 0.32% 2.78% (1.39%) 1.39% 18.49% 3,107.4

2015

1.77% (0.32%) 5.41% Start of live trading - see Real Trading Results 6.94% 3,323.0

2. Performance Statistics (Before Performance Fees)

Strategy Returns (Before Performance Fees)

Testing period (74 months)

Mar/2009 - Mar/2015

Net profit on fixed capital without/with monthly profit reinvesting

123.1% / 232.3%

Sum of positive/ negative monthly rates of return - ROR (gross gain / gross loss)

149.05% /

(26.02%)

Compound average annualized ROR

21.50%

VAMI - Growth of $1,000, compounded monthly (fees not deducted)

3,323.0

Monthly Profit Factor (Profit to Loss Ratio); (sum of positive RORs) to (sum of negative RORs)

5.73

# Profitable months / average positive ROR

55 / 2.71%

# Losing months / average negative ROR

19 / (1.37%)

Kurtosis of monthly RORs

(0.28)

Skewness of monthly RORs

0.07

% Profitable months

74.3%

Ratio avg. positive / avg. negative monthly ROR (Gain to Loss Ratio)

1.98

Max. # of consecutive profitable / losing months

8 / 3

Maximum / minimum monthly ROR

8.04% / (3.30%)

Maximum / minimum daily ROR

6.45% / (3.14%)

Maximum / minimum 5-day rolling ROR

6.45% / (3.14%)

Risk Measures

Annualized standard deviation of monthly RORs

8.21%

Annualized downside deviation (MAR = RF return of 3% per annum)

3.29%

Sharpe Ratio, annualized (RF rate of return 3.0%)

2.50

Sortino Ratio, annualized (below RF ret. 3%)

6.24

Calmar Ratio (ratio compound average annual ROR to worst intra month drawdown)

3.55

Omega Ratios

N/A

Tracking error, relative to the S&P 500 Index, annualized

12.72%

Historic 5-day Value at Risk (VaR); (for 95% and 99% confidence levels)

  (1.01%) /  (1.98%)

Alpha relative to the S&P 500 Index, annualized

15.66%

Beta and correlation coefficient, relative to the S&P 500 Index

0.27 / 0.47

Jensen's Alpha relative to the S&P 500 Index, annualized

16.45%

Active premium, relative to the S&P 500 Index, annualized

5.45%

Information Ratio, relative to the S&P 500 Index

0.31

Worst month-to-month drawdown depth / duration

(6.05%) Apr-Jun 2012

Worst peak-to-valley (intra month) drawdown ; (see graph below)

(6.66%) / 14 May 2012

Longest recovery period; see also the Drawdown chart below

2 months

 

Basic Strategy Characteristics
Strategy name

V1

Type of trading S&P 500 Vol. Index trading
Portfolio composition

VXX ETNs (or VIX futures)

Margin to equity ratio Max 30%
Max. leverage (positions value relative to Net Asset Value - NAV) 0.3
How generated

Back testing - hypothetical

Start of live trading in the Managed Account Program: April 1, 2015

Turnover / Cost Parameters

Average positions value, relative to NAV

30%

Average daily portfolio turnover (daily traded positions value as a percentage of NAV)

6%

Annual turnover ratio

26

Average annual transaction costs - bid/ask spreads and commissions (deduct from annual ROR)

1.5% of NAV per annum

Average transaction bid/ask spread and commission cost, as a fraction of the transaction value

0.06%

 

More back testing results are available upon request.

PLEASE ANALYZE AND THOROUGHLY UNDERSTAND THE RISK / DRAWDOWN PARAMETERS ABOVE AND THE DRAWDOWN CHART BELOW BEFORE YOU DECIDE TO INVEST IN THE PROGRAM. AS WITH ANY TRADING PROGRAM, THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE SYSTEM WILL NOT EXCEED THE WORST DRAWDOWN FROM THE PAST. I DO NOT RECOMMEND INVESTING MORE THAN 1/3 OF YOUR TOTAL INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO IN ANY PARTICULAR PROGRAM, INCLUDING VT - VOLATILITY TRADING STRATEGY.

3. Performance Graphs and Histograms

3.1 Monthly Graphs

3.2. Daily Graphs

The above tables and charts document VT's historical hypothetical performance based on back testing results. To see actual trading results, please go to the VT - Real Performance page.

Please note that performance results reported are before performance fees, which decrease returns. Interest on open positions is not taken into account in hypothetical results. There may also be slight differences in profit/loss on different platforms.

Better results, i.e. smaller drawdown and better Sharpe and Sortino Ratio can be obtained by trading the VT strategy in combination with the FXQ, FXI and ED trading strategies - see the MS3 and MS4 hypothetical composite (multi strategy) performance record.

Hypothetical Performance Disclaimer:

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVERCOMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PLATFORMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

Risk Disclaimer

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING EQUITIES AND ETFS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION AND INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE PERFORMANCE QUOTED REPRESENTS PAST PERFORMANCE AND CURRENT PERFORMANCE MAY BE LOWER OR HIGHER. TRADING EQUITIES IS SPECULATIVE AND MAY INVOLVE THE LOSS OF PRINCIPAL; THEREFORE, FUNDS PLACED UNDER MANAGEMENT SHOULD BE RISK CAPITAL FUNDS THAT IF LOST WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT ONE'S PERSONAL WELL BEING. THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION TO INVEST AND YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTION.